Outgoing-Level-Doughnut
Skill vs luck
Outgoing-Level-Doughnut on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Outgoing-Level-Doughnut: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x285faa3e3d1465cf3ff1bff1e1d14891f5b8495f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Outgoing-Level-Doughnut: −$2.3K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- −$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | BUY BetBoom Team @ 8¢ | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs BetBoom Team (BO5) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs ↗ | $2.3K |
All 1 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?