Unfortunate-Show

0x26eb4b82e4bc8ff5b03cc2b8c10e83b24b2222d0

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unfortunate-Show: +$479 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$479
return +4.3%
Settled bets
2
$11K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Oct 1 – Oct 15
+$479
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −4.5% (2,043 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 14 BUY Yes @ 43¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-14?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-10-14? $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 85¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09? $4.4K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 89¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?
Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09? $5.8K

All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1792047640, computed 2026-10-15 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1792047640 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed