Content-Acetate
Skill vs luck
Content-Acetate on Polymarket: 22 settled bets · won 41% (95% range 23%–61%) · profit −$105. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Content-Acetate: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x234fcc29efc4d831e5b1dd92d266498ac6b16320. Data CC BY 4.0.
Content-Acetate: −$105 on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 41% (95% range 23%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$105
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Team Yandex @ 78¢ | Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Nemiga Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Dawn Bulls
@ 60¢
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner | $1.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Team Liquid @ 75¢ | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Nemiga Gaming
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL HULIGANI
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner | $2.7K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Zero Tenacity
@ 53¢
Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B |
Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | $1.6K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Dawn Bulls
@ 83¢
Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B |
Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?