This-Principle
Skill vs luck
This-Principle on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 0% (95% range 0%–56%) · profit −$21. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “This-Principle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2272e77a16f6d6a8a15da053f05f8e624424aff5. Data CC BY 4.0.
This-Principle: −$21 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–56%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$21
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | SELL FURIA
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | $14K |
| Oct 16 | SELL FURIA Esports
@ 99.9¢
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | $4.5K |
| Oct 16 | SELL FURIA Esports @ 99.9¢ | Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) ↗ | $1.9K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?