Shocking-Survey
Skill vs luck
Shocking-Survey on Polymarket: 19 settled bets · won 32% (95% range 15%–54%) · profit +$726. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Shocking-Survey: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x226bf1220731af372b1e7d572959414f31b4cad6. Data CC BY 4.0.
Shocking-Survey: +$726 on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 32% (95% range 15%–54%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 17 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$13K
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$6.3K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$19K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Auburn @ 28¢ | LSU vs. Auburn ↗ | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY NC State
@ 50¢
Spread: NC State (-7.5) |
Spread: NC State (-7.5) | $3.0K |
| Oct 20 | BUY
@ 20¢
Spread: 49ers (-7.5) AND Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5 |
Spread: 49ers (-7.5) AND Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 48.5 | $2.9K |
| Oct 19 | BUY 49ers
@ 43¢
Spread: 49ers (-9.5) |
Spread: 49ers (-9.5) | $2.2K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Hurricanes
@ 44¢
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) |
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | $8.8K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Hurricanes
@ 37¢
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) |
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | $3.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 22¢
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 |
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Hurricanes
@ 34¢
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) |
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | $3.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?