Functional-Experimentation
Skill vs luck
Functional-Experimentation on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 20% (95% range 4%–62%) · profit −$2.6K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Functional-Experimentation: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x216050de6080fac3926226b2b8ce3d5544784c78. Data CC BY 4.0.
Functional-Experimentation: −$2.6K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 4%–62%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- −$4
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$2.6K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Bengals @ 56¢ | Bengals vs. Ravens ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Navy
@ 47¢
Spread: North Texas (-2.5) |
Spread: North Texas (-2.5) | $1.2K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Troy
@ 53¢
Spread: Troy (-11.5) |
Spread: Troy (-11.5) | $1.5K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Under
@ 71¢
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 |
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 | $2.7K |
| Oct 22 | SELL Over
@ 13¢
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 |
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 | $1.2K |
| Sep 12 | SELL T1 @ 99.9¢ | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $3.8K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?