Closed-Trolley-Catalysis
Skill vs luck
Closed-Trolley-Catalysis on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 51%–100%) · profit +$1.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Closed-Trolley-Catalysis: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1ef2932c7c332bdb5aa4c76ea4efd042fd1feec1. Data CC BY 4.0.
Closed-Trolley-Catalysis: +$1.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 51%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$698
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- +$1.1K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 | BUY Pacers @ 70¢ | Pacers vs. Pelicans ↗ | $2.0K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Thunder @ 89¢ | Thunder vs. Spurs ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 18 | BUY TCU
@ 92¢
TCU vs. Baylor |
TCU vs. Baylor | $1.1K |
| Sep 17 | BUY Alina Charaeva
@ 76¢
Sao Paulo Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Alina Charaeva |
Sao Paulo Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Alina Charaeva | $2.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?