Extraneous-Transom
Skill vs luck
Extraneous-Transom on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit −$570. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 23, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Extraneous-Transom: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1e4b57f70ea89f197b96eb899409335c5eaa0a04. Data CC BY 4.0.
Extraneous-Transom: −$570 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 7 – Oct 23
- −$570
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Cavaliers @ 57¢ | Cavaliers vs. 76ers ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Rockets @ 75¢ | Mavericks vs. Rockets ↗ | $1.4K |
All 2 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?