Sophisticated-Order
Skill vs luck
Sophisticated-Order on Polymarket: 13 settled bets · won 69% (95% range 42%–87%) · profit +$25K. Skill vs luck: better than luck, though 1 in 40 wallets do this by chance alone. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sophisticated-Order: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1d169955b78ad2885e725717e5928eec33c9212e. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sophisticated-Order: +$25K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 42%–87%). Skill or luck: beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone).
Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$980
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$24K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 30¢
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? |
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 30¢ | Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $4.8K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Indiana @ 44¢ | Ohio State vs. Indiana ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | SELL Yes
@ 99.9¢
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? |
Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? | $5.0K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes
@ 34¢
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? |
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? | $4.3K |
| Oct 17 | BUY BNK FEARX @ 57¢ | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner ↗ | $4.2K |
| Oct 17 | BUY BNK FEARX @ 63¢ | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner ↗ | $8.7K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Under
@ 40¢
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5 |
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5 | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?