0x1bc3…dc6e
Skill vs luck
0x1bc3…dc6e on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 60% (95% range 23%–88%) · profit −$1.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “0x1bc3…dc6e: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e. Data CC BY 4.0.
0x1bc3…dc6e: −$1.2K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 23%–88%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$1.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 80¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 249.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 249.5 | $1.5K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 80¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 247.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 247.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 73¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 253.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 253.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 73¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 253.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 253.5 | $2.1K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over
@ 77¢
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 245.5 |
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 245.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 28 | BUY Over @ 98¢ | Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 ↗ | $3.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?