Extraneous-Bird
Skill vs luck
Extraneous-Bird on Polymarket: 14 settled bets · won 43% (95% range 21%–67%) · profit +$194. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Extraneous-Bird: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1b9ee1dc150045ab1dd12ed92d954c6cfcea8cc0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Extraneous-Bird: +$194 on 14 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 21%–67%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$51
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$83
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$60
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢ | Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 22 | SELL JiJieHao
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs JiJieHao (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs JiJieHao (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 17 | BUY VP.Future 3
@ 96¢
Counter-Strike: VP.Future 3 vs Bread Eaters Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: VP.Future 3 vs Bread Eaters Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 15 | BUY MIBR
@ 98¢
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D |
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group D | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL fnatic
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Team Nemesis
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 23 | BUY WBT Academy
@ 97¢
Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs 6666 - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs 6666 - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Sep 23 | BUY The KnockoutX
@ 96¢
Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs The KnockoutX (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: THE UNIT vs The KnockoutX (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #2 Playoffs | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?