Closed-Development
Skill vs luck
Closed-Development on Polymarket: 9 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 12%–65%) · profit −$647. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Closed-Development: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x1510d5ea67bbc0b441e4154c7ed4150c4584fe91. Data CC BY 4.0.
Closed-Development: −$647 on 9 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 12%–65%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$1.1K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$448
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Spurs @ 92¢ | Spurs vs. Mavericks ↗ | $1.6K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Under
@ 99¢
Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 |
Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 4.5 | $2.1K |
| Oct 25 | SELL Under
@ 99.9¢
Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 |
Santos FC vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | $1.9K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes
@ 98¢
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-24? |
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-24? | $1.1K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Under
@ 99¢
Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 5.5 |
Como 1907 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 5.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Under
@ 99¢
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 |
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 | $1.2K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Yes
@ 77¢
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-23? |
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-23? | $1.1K |
| Oct 20 | SELL 49ers @ 99.9¢ | Commanders vs. 49ers ↗ | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?