Cluttered-Snob

0x11c3f285460d0bd4e6e8ab554cc8da87eaffc90d

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Cluttered-Snob: +$3.3K on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 37% (95% range 19%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$3.3K
return +5.8%
Settled bets
19
$58K staked
Won
36.8%
95% range 19%–59%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 7 – Sep 25
+$15K
Sep 25 – Oct 13
−$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6% (2,332 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Yes @ 51¢
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-11?
Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-11? $2.0K
Oct 10 BUY Yes @ 21¢
Will Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?
Will Arsenal FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? $1.9K
Oct 5 SELL Yes @ 99.9¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05?
Will France win on 2026-10-05? $1.1K
Oct 5 BUY Yes @ 41¢
Will France win on 2026-10-05?
Will France win on 2026-10-05? $2.4K
Sep 29 BUY Yes @ 54¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-09-29?
Will Switzerland win on 2026-09-29? $1.1K
Sep 29 BUY Yes @ 29¢
Will Scotland vs. Switzerland end in a draw?
Will Scotland vs. Switzerland end in a draw? $6.3K
Sep 28 BUY Yes @ 40¢
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28?
Will Italy win on 2026-09-28? $5.2K
Sep 24 BUY Yes @ 17¢
Will Denmark win on 2026-09-24?
Will Denmark win on 2026-09-24? $1.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791874803, computed 2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791874803 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed