Actual-Marshland

0x10658d371ae1f09eed503a3a14c8ac6a1a936218

Skill vs luck

Actual-Marshland on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 41%–93%) · profit +$1.4K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 24, 2026.

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Cite: Hopium Games, “Actual-Marshland: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x10658d371ae1f09eed503a3a14c8ac6a1a936218. Data CC BY 4.0.

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Actual-Marshland: +$1.4K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 41%–93%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit

+$1.4K

return +8.9%

Settled bets

$15K staked

Won

75.0%

95% range 41%–93%

Mostly bets on

other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period

Aug 20 – Sep 5: −$287
Sep 5 – Sep 21: +$1.3K
Sep 21 – Oct 7: +$763
Oct 7 – Oct 24: −$396

Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.

Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −11.2% (2,187 positions).

Latest captured bets

When	Bet	Market	Size
Oct 22	BUY Team Yandex @ 80¢ Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner ↗	$1.2K
Oct 22	BUY G2 Esports @ 40¢ LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage ↗	$1.5K
Oct 9	BUY No @ 81¢ Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?	Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?	$1.6K
Oct 9	BUY No @ 83¢ Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?	Will Croatia win on 2026-10-09?	$2.2K
Oct 5	BUY HANJIN BRION @ 79¢ LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage ↗	$2.9K
Sep 19	BUY No @ 63¢ Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-09-20?	Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-09-20?	$2.2K
Aug 29	BUY No @ 51¢ Will Konyaspor win on 2026-08-29?	Will Konyaspor win on 2026-08-29?	$1.5K
Aug 27	SELL Over @ 45¢ HNK Rijeka vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5	HNK Rijeka vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5	$1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?

About this data · run 1792825211, computed 2026-10-24 07:00 UTC

Source: hopium_compute run 1792825211 (PG metrics_*)

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed