Prickly-Signup
Skill vs luck
Prickly-Signup on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$288. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 22, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Prickly-Signup: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 22, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0dde1b35552efae5aa3759aedb6fa7b2d6f594c3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Prickly-Signup: −$288 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 6 – Oct 22
- −$288
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | $8.4K |
| Oct 19 | SELL No @ 88¢ | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 19 | SELL No @ 88¢ | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗ | $4.4K |
| Oct 19 | SELL Yes
@ 86¢
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? |
Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | $1.7K |
| Oct 16 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | $2.0K |
| Oct 15 | BUY No @ 93¢ | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 14 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? |
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | $1.9K |
| Oct 12 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? |
Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?