Wry-Railing
Skill vs luck
Wry-Railing on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 15%–85%) · profit −$7. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Wry-Railing: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0d135b516fbbed454a43de121e24a914759d92f3. Data CC BY 4.0.
Wry-Railing: −$7 on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 15%–85%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 5 – Sep 22
- +$757
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- −$765
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Cavaliers @ 50¢ | Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Jazz
@ 48¢
Spread: Jazz (-1.5) |
Spread: Jazz (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Celtics
@ 51¢
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) |
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) | $1.4K |
| Sep 6 | BUY St. Louis City SC
@ 58¢
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) | $1.0K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?