Hasty-Serum
Skill vs luck
Hasty-Serum on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$855. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hasty-Serum: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0be65fbbb9e9e4cf1c3b891d45e7c8fe1dfe3b7f. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hasty-Serum: −$855 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$1.3K
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$446
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 55¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25? |
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-25? | $1.3K |
| Oct 24 | BUY Yes @ 80¢ | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-24? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Spain
@ 59¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5) |
Spread: Spain (-2.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ | Will England win on 2026-10-03? ↗ | $1.6K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?