Adventurous-Noodle

0x0affef627ae5ad211203b305e0b0b036fe14753f

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Adventurous-Noodle: +$826 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 80% (95% range 38%–96%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$826
return +13.2%
Settled bets
5
$6.2K staked
Won
80.0%
95% range 38%–96%
Mostly bets on
crypto

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 7
+$506
Sep 7 – Sep 25
+$326
Sep 25 – Oct 14
−$5
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.7% (2,280 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 13 SELL Yes @ 99.8¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? $2.5K
Sep 15 BUY Yes @ 83¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15?
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? $1.5K
Sep 11 BUY Up @ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET $1.8K
Sep 5 BUY Yes @ 89¢
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-05?
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-05? $1.5K
Aug 21 BUY Yes @ 82¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21?
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? $1.5K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791961222, computed 2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791961222 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed