Wise-Loaf
Skill vs luck
Wise-Loaf on Polymarket: 5 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 57%–100%) · profit +$2.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Wise-Loaf: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x0af479ff5340e00ddd2a242637be3a79f31e6eab. Data CC BY 4.0.
Wise-Loaf: +$2.0K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 57%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- +$647
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$1.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | BUY Alexander Volkov @ 99¢ | UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card) ↗ | $7.7K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Smilla Sundell
@ 77¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card) |
Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card) | $1.5K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Smilla Sundell
@ 81¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card) |
Dana White's Contender Series: Aline Pereira vs. Smilla Sundell (Women's Bantamweight, Main Card) | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Julius Walker
@ 76¢
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) |
UFC Fight Night: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Julius Walker (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Eric Nolan
@ 63¢
UFC 332: Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan (Welterweight, Early Prelims) |
UFC 332: Court McGee vs. Eric Nolan (Welterweight, Early Prelims) | $1.0K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Ian Escuza
@ 99¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza (Featherweight, Main Card) |
Dana White's Contender Series: Luca Borando vs. Ian Escuza (Featherweight, Main Card) | $3.3K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?