Unlucky-Physical-Decade
Skill vs luck
Unlucky-Physical-Decade on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 57% (95% range 25%–84%) · profit +$38. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.9% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 25, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Unlucky-Physical-Decade: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x096bbeb8b91bcb722048d8db8a32b1576a827676. Data CC BY 4.0.
Unlucky-Physical-Decade: +$38 on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 25%–84%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 22 – Oct 8
- −$6
- Oct 8 – Oct 25
- +$44
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY Katerina Siniakova @ 99.8¢ | Japan Women's Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Katerina Siniakova ↗ | $1.1K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Erik Arutiunian
@ 99.9¢
Fort Worth: Andres Martin vs Erik Arutiunian |
Fort Worth: Andres Martin vs Erik Arutiunian | $1.5K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Harrison/Skupski
@ 98¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters (Doubles): Harrison/Skupski vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin |
Shanghai Rolex Masters (Doubles): Harrison/Skupski vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin | $1.3K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Rebecca Sramkova
@ 99.9¢
Suzhou: Rebecca Sramkova vs Kyoka Okamura |
Suzhou: Rebecca Sramkova vs Kyoka Okamura | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Vitalem Aerem
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Vitalem Aerem - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Vitalem Aerem - Map 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 1.5 |
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 1.5 | $3.0K |
| Oct 2 | SELL Perth Wildcats
@ 99.9¢
Perth Wildcats vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix |
Perth Wildcats vs. South East Melbourne Phoenix | $1.2K |
| Sep 29 | SELL Alba Rey Garcia
@ 99.9¢
W35 Baza: Indianna Spink vs Alba Rey Garcia |
W35 Baza: Indianna Spink vs Alba Rey Garcia | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?