Formal-Bureau
Skill vs luck
Formal-Bureau on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit +$347. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 19, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Formal-Bureau: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 19, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x05df3f007db2ef170b34c2478f3c140da843e268. Data CC BY 4.0.
Formal-Bureau: +$347 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$860
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$1.4K
- Oct 4 – Oct 19
- +$840
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY MVK Esports @ 58¢ | LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports - Game 4 Winner ↗ | $1.2K |
| Oct 3 | SELL HANJIN BRION @ 54¢ | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage ↗ | $1.6K |
| Sep 6 | BUY T1 @ 57¢ | LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner ↗ | $1.1K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?