Short-Term-Criminal
Skill vs luck
Short-Term-Criminal on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$763. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.5% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 21, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Short-Term-Criminal: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 21, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x01309d49fd508ba7b2379967bdc7197e5b47274c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Short-Term-Criminal: +$763 on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$588
- Oct 5 – Oct 21
- +$175
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes
@ 99¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? |
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | $9.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 95¢
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary? |
Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary? | $1.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? |
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | $12K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No @ 91¢ | Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $9.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? |
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? | $13K |
| Sep 4 | BUY Yes
@ 90¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? |
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | $5.3K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?