Weak-Dinner
0xb1a279adb096d316b1b168993e8ed976d3cd372a
Weak-Dinner: −$32K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$32K
return −82.0%
Settled bets
2
$39K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$39K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$7.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | SELL No
@ 21¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $7.0K |
| Sep 4 | BUY No
@ 51¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $11K |
| Sep 3 | BUY Yes
@ 15¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $1.9K |
| Sep 2 | SELL Yes
@ 15¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $4.6K |
| Aug 22 | BUY Yes
@ 25¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $19K |
| Aug 20 | BUY No
@ 72¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | $28K |
| Aug 20 | BUY Yes
@ 25¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $3.8K |
| Aug 20 | BUY Yes
@ 24¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.