Icy-Intuition-Outcome
0xa9642d9fd27ef5fad95048d98ee9bc4b7bd54c98
Icy-Intuition-Outcome: −$15K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 31% (95% range 13%–58%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$15K
return −62.8%
Settled bets
13
$24K staked
Won
30.8%
95% range 13%–58%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.5K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 31¢
Will FC Lorient vs. Paris FC end in a draw? |
Will FC Lorient vs. Paris FC end in a draw? | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Under
@ 59¢
Croatia vs. England: O/U 4.5 |
Croatia vs. England: O/U 4.5 | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Luxembourg
@ 68¢
Spread: Estonia (-1.5) |
Spread: Estonia (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Jiri Lehecka
@ 75¢
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka |
Japan Open Tennis Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Jiri Lehecka | $2.3K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes
@ 31¢
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw? |
Will Republic of Ireland vs. Austria end in a draw? | $1.2K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 32¢
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Club Puebla end in a draw? |
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Club Puebla end in a draw? | $1.7K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Vancouver Whitecaps FC
@ 56¢
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) | $2.0K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Yes
@ 28¢
Will Czechia vs. Croatia end in a draw? |
Will Czechia vs. Croatia end in a draw? | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.