Lustrous-Glasses-Airport

0x9c57012d4dea9303d310381f6d3a5f9f6d967db2

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Lustrous-Glasses-Airport: −$1.6K on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 25%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$1.6K
return −8.2%
Settled bets
12
$19K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 25%–75%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$67
Sep 6 – Sep 24
−$6
Sep 24 – Oct 12
−$1.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9% (2,374 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 11 BUY Vitality @ 66¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO5) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $2.6K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ NXT @ 50¢
Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #8 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #8 Playoffs $1.0K
Oct 9 BUY Bebop @ 83¢
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group C
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group C $2.4K
Oct 9 BUY mellren @ 56¢
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group C
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group C $1.4K
Oct 8 BUY ENJOY @ 56¢
Counter-Strike: MORROW vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group A
Counter-Strike: MORROW vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #11 Group A $1.0K
Oct 4 BUY megoshort @ 50¢
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner $1.8K
Oct 4 BUY megoshort @ 52¢
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs megoshort - Map 1 Winner $1.4K
Oct 4 BUY mellren @ 64¢
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: mellren vs Spirit Academy - Map 2 Winner $1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791788420, computed 2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791788420 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed