Anchored-Ignorance

0x706958c87efe9202a8e2a8ad74d727824d01325b

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Anchored-Ignorance: −$30 on 19 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–17%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$30
return —
Settled bets
19
$0 staked
Won
0.0%
95% range 0%–17%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$17
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$14
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 SELL fnatic @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs $2.6K
Oct 6 SELL Natus Vincere @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner $1.2K
Oct 6 SELL @ 99.71¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage AND Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs 1WIN (+6.5) $1.5K
Oct 6 SELL PARIVISION @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner $1.5K
Oct 5 SELL @ 99.72¢
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner AND Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner AND Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $1.1K
Oct 5 SELL MOUZ @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner $1.2K
Oct 5 SELL @ 99.63¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) AND Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5)
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs ShindeN (+1.5) AND Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs 1WIN (+1.5) $1.1K
Oct 3 SELL ShindeN @ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner $1.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed