Lively-Hypothermia
0x13faf8c7b9f286b49515dcbbd08c6cf236e27496
Lively-Hypothermia: −$12K on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$12K
return −300.6%
Settled bets
5
$3.9K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- −$4
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$12K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | SELL Vitality
@ 10¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 3 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Vitality
@ 41¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Vitality
@ 51¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | SELL Spirit
@ 31¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.3K |
| Sep 24 | BUY 1win
@ 47¢
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5) | $1.4K |
| Sep 23 | SELL avice Team
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: avice Team vs gpk Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A |
Dota 2: avice Team vs gpk Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group A | $3.6K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.